All You Need to Know About 2015 Election: Inside the Presidential Fight

Opponents - within and outside the ruling party - are undercutting
President Jonathan's authority as he prepares for the 2015 elections
Two factors - rampant factionalism in the governing People's
Democratic Party and a coherent opposition alliance are changing the
calculus in Nigerian politics. For the first time in 14 years, the PDP
could lose power at the centre in credible national elections. The PDP
has never been a solid structure. Formed as an alliance of convenience
by some leading politicians and their patronage networks in 1998, the
party nearly broke apart in 2007 and was fractured badly before the
2003 and 2011 elections. However, on each occasion, party bosses
corralled the squabbling politicians with a mixture of coercion and
co-option - and delivered a victory, boosted by the party's control of
state security and attendant vote-rigging.
Successive presidents have used their access to oil export earnings of
nearly US$100 billion a year, combined with the threat of highly
selective anti-corruption investigations and prosecutions, to reimpose
the party's political dominance (AC Vol 54 No 11). Divided opposition
parties have also helped the PDP tremendously.
All You Need to Know About 2015 Election: Inside the Presidential Fight
Various reincarnations of the historic Lagos-based and
Yoruba-dominated left-of-centre parties with their roots in the
anti-colonial struggle have vied for control of the south-west,
steadily strengthening their grip. Northern-dominated parties have
taken a few states in the north-east or the north-west but in total,
opposition parties have struggled to win more than a third of the
total 36 states. No single opposition party has controlled more than
six state governments since 1999.
That has changed with the opposition party merger under the flag of
the All Progressives' Congress (APC, AC Vol 54 No 9). At the same
time,President Goodluck Jonathanlooks increasingly vulnerable within
the PDP, where he faces an all-out rebellion by the powerful state
governors, who control local politics and whose cooperation is vital
to win apresidential poll. Much of the dissension comes from the
President's undeclared plan to run for re-election in 2015.
Jonathan, from the Niger Delta, took office afterPresident Umaru Musa
Yar'Adua, a northerner, died in 2010. Since the constitution says an
individual can twice be elected president for four-year terms,
Jonathan's allies insist that he is still eligible to run in 2015. Yet
that would give him an unprecedented decade in office because he
served out PresidentYar'Adua's last two years as well.
The cheated north
Northern factions in the party already felt cheated out of office
after Yar'Adua's untimely death and pushed hard to have Jonathan stand
aside in 2011. Under the PDP's regional principle, the major offices
are supposed to rotate between north andsouth. However, Jonathan broke
this rule in the 2011 election and the prospect of his running for a
second term in 2015 has further angered northern leaders.
If Jonathan has foes in his own party, his popularity with the general
public has also declined. The growing middle class in the main towns
and cities combined with the youth vote to help him win the last
election. Indeed, he could have won in a straight vote, even without
the widespread rigging in PDP strongholds.
Since then, frustration has grown about the President's unwillingness
orinability to tackle political and business corruption. The turning
point came quickly in January 2012 when his government ended the fuel
subsidies, regarded as one of the few mass benefits of oil production
(AC Vol 53 No 2).
The cut sparked nationwide protests under the banner of Occupy
Nigeria. For two weeks, professionals, civil activists, trades
unionists, students, musicians and even civil servants held mass
protests and brought the countryto a standstill. A planned strike by
oil workers finally forced Jonathan to reinstate about half of the
subsidy.
To the protestors, the government hadrevealed itself as weak and
vacillating in the face of organised opposition. Activists also began
to pick open the corrupt rackets and their links to political sponsors
that were part of thesubsidy. It emerged that the arrears onsubsidy
payments owed to fuel importers in 2011 amounted to $18 bn. or more
than half of the federal budgetof $28 bn. Given that 2011 was an
election year, activists quickly linked the largesse to the country's
biggest fuel importers and party campaign contributions.Initially, the
legislators in the National Assembly fared best from the fuel-subsidy
crisis. They summoned the leading fuel trading companies to the House
of Representatives Ad Hoc Committee on Fuel Subsidy Management to
explain who was benefiting from the subsidy system and how (AC Vol 53
Nos 9 & 11). Then the credibility of the members of parliament
nose-dived when it emerged that Committee ChairmanFarouk Lawanhad been
caught in a sting operation, demanding bribes from billionaire fuel
importerFemi Otedola(AC Vol 54 No 11).
Reform trio
Although the fuel-subsidy crisis deeplyundermined the government, some
resolute optimists still put faith in the credentials of its reform
trio:Coordinating Minister of the Economy Ngozi
Okonjo-Iweala,Agriculture Minister Akinwumi AdesinaandCentral Bank of
Nigeria(CBN) Governor Sanusi Lamido Aminu Sanusi. Former colleagues at
the World Bank (where many had backed her last year to become its
president) say that Okonjo-Iweala has pushed through detailed
technical reforms in public finance managementwhich will make grand
corruption and the diversion of state revenue much more difficult. She
complains that these important changes have gone largely unrecognised
by the local and international media.
Yet sceptics say that even the redoubtable Okonjo-Iweala has made
little progress in securing greater accountability over the oil
revenue managed by the Department of Petroleum Resources under the
aegis of the Minister,Diezani Alison-Madueke, a key ally of
Jonathan's. Although Adesina is widely praised for boosting farm
productivity, crop storage and transport, in addition to rationalising
seed and fertiliser distribution, there are periodic reportsthat he
will be reshuffled. Adesina and his colleagues see the rapid
development of agriculture as the next main economic focus; in terms
of Nigeria's market share, it could outpace oil and gas. There is,
too, a wave of new interest in farming from investors, whom Adesina
has wooed assiduously on the conference circuit.
The term of the much feted CBN Governor Sanusi ends next year and
hehas made it clear he will not seek a second one. Sanusi is best
known for his bold reform of the financial sector and pioneering
financial support for agricultural development schemes, hisdeparture
could significantly weaken the reformists.
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Powerful merger
The biggest development shaking the political system is the merger of
four opposition parties into the APC. In the past four elections,
opposition parties joined only ad hoc alliances that had often
unravelled by election day. The APC, however, is a credible merger
intoa single party, formed from the south-west's Action Congress of
Nigeria (ACN); the small northern-based All Nigeria People's Party
(ANPP, AC Vol 44 No 8); the leading party in the south-east, the All
Progressives' Grand Alliance (APGA AC Vol 48 No 8); andMajor General
Muhammadu Buhari's Congress for Progressive Change. TheAPC controls 13
governorships and could seriously challenge the PDP across the
country.
The key architects of the APC have been Buhari and the ACN leader,
formerLagos Governor Bola AhmedTinubu. He has rebuilt the old Yoruba
political machine after it was reduced to holding only one state in
2003. By 2011, the ACN controlled nearly the entire south-west and one
Niger Delta state.
Tinubu and Buhari tried to form an alliance in 2011 but the
arrangement collapsed over their inability to agree on who would
occupy the top of the ticket. This year, however, the two reached a
compromise that forms the foundation of the APC. The exact terms of
the agreement have not been madepublic but one aspect is clear: Tinubu
has agreed that the presidential candidate will be a northerner and
that he will not be the vice-presidential choice.
Less clear, however, is Buhari's future in the APC. He lacks a strong
political organisation but he is tremendously popular on the streets
of the north - and among some southerners - for his anti-corruption
credentials. Buhari is without doubt one of the most
popularpoliticians but big questions arise about his role in an
opposition organisation.Under the terms of the APC merger, Buhari
appeared to have agreed to stand down in 2015, leaving himself and
Tinubu as kingmakers. Now, Buharisays he plans to run again. He might
again withdraw. At the same time, members of the Tinubu camp say that
they could work with Buhari as their candidate if they could play the
leading role in developing the new opposition coalition. In any event,
theymay have to. Buhari has name recognition and grassroots popularity
but he has no viable political organisation, even in the north.
The APC's prospects for 2015 also depend upon whether or not a
significant number of the northern PDP governors can be convinced to
cross the floor. The current tally suggests that six to nine PDP
governors, most but not all in the north, are considering decamping to
the APC.
Sokoto imbroglio
The Jonathan-controlled PDP leadership has suspended the party's
governor in Sokoto and is threatening others. Open warfare has broken
out between Jonathan's camp andRotimi Chibuike Amaechi, the PDP
Governor of Rivers State, over control of the the Nigeria Governors'
Forum. Amaechi hasfaced down Jonathan's efforts to oust him as
Chairman and has won strong backing from all the opposition governors
and several from Jonathan's party. An articulate and lively advocate
of political change, Amaechi is due to address London's Royal
Institute of International Affairs this month.
By contrast, Buhari cuts a more sombrefigure. He also frightens most
of the political establishment, particularly those involved in
corruption. Previously, he has talked of the need to gaol many from
the political class as a way of cleansing the system.
Uncharacteristically, he has made quietovertures in recent months,
suggesting that he might be willing to overlook past corruption if it
stops when he takes office. Indeed, Buhari's alliance with Tinubu and
his patronagemachine suggests that he is open to more pragmatic
tactics. Many leaders - even retired military officers such asIbrahim
BabangidaandAliyu Mohammed Gusau- who have crossed Buhari, worry that
they would still remain targets. A mass exodus to the APC is unlikely
right away, perhaps not until mid-2014. The northern governors will
continue to undermine Jonathan within the PDP at first, working with
former President Obasanjo and other disaffected members to win control
of its machinery.
The third way
Their chances of success are slight, given the massive resource
advantage of the presidency and their fears of an APC led by Buhari.
The northern PDP governors are now discussing a 'third way' option of
forming their own party.Former Vice-PresidentAtiku Abubakarand other
senior politicianshave entertained similar notions. Such developments
would be a major blow to the PDP but would also present the APC with
some difficult choices. For now, it looks the least likely route for
the northern governors, if only because it would require a solidarity
among them that they have yet to demonstrate.
The APC's fortunes depend above all on its presidential candidate.
AlthoughBuhari dominates discussion at the moment, other strong
candidates are quietly testing the waters, some of whom have reformist
credentials. If the APC can produce a presidential flagbearer who is
sufficiently credible to attract both elite and wider electoral
attention, as well as encapsulating the frustrations of the north, the
party could gain a good number of PDP governors and supporters as well
as tap into the vast well of public exhaustion with corrupt PDP rule.
If the APC is able to construct a sufficiently national organisation
to challenge the PDP in most of the 36 states, two additional factors
will work in the opposition's favour. Firstly, the large coalition of
civil society groups that came together under Occupy Nigeria remains
fairly organised and could throw its weight behind the opposition.
That would help election monitoring and street protests if the 2015
elections are close. Trades union leaders, however, have long
relationships with the PDP that will make their role uncertain.
Secondly, the Independent National Election Commission is headed by a
reformer,Professor Attahiru Jega, who has been battling to break the
grip of the politicians on the election system (AC Vol 51 No 16).
Unfortunately, the INEC is structured sothat that he does not control
its state or local offices, so that the local political machines were
able to alter many results in 2011 after the results left the polling
stations and before they reached the federal level. Jega is
considering several ways to get the actual polling station results
directly to the INEC leadership and to the public, but he faces strong
resistance from political networks.Recipe for an APC win
APC leaders express private doubts about whether Jega is really
independent. Nevertheless, his efforts at INEC, combined with civil
society support, could provide the required ingredients for an APC
victory if the party gains backing from the northern governors to give
it the national organisation it needs.
Yet the hurdles are high. First and foremost stands the remarkable
abilityof the PDP to reinstall a modicum of party discipline,
typically fuelled by the deep pockets of the presidency. Jonathan
still has time to reach out to northern leaders and negotiate a new
deal with enough governors, although that could be difficult. PDP
organisers could take advantage of the heavy military presence in the
north-east to interfere with election outcomes there.
More promising for the President is the tenuous thread upon which the
APC merger hangs - the agreement between Tinubu and Buhari. Their
alliance fell apart in 2011 and could well fray again as difficult
choices over candidates and policy direction will have to be made.
Tinubu has also shown a willingness to work with the PDP in the past,
so he may be amenable to PDP overtures - or simply stay at home for
the presidential election - if Buhari proves too difficult.
All this focussing on the presidential election, however, obscures
other issues for the APC and its countrywide reach. The opposition now
has enoughorganisations in many of the states to contemplate a more
comprehensive strategy. If it does not employ all its energy on
winning the presidency, theAPC could prepare a Plan B in case Jonathan
outmanoeuvres it in 2015. It might add more state governorships and
reach 18 or 19 states. That would give it a powerful base from which
to take the presidency in 2019.
Such advance planning would be untypical of senior politicians but if
they can stitch together a viable opposition, they will need a far
more strategic approach from now on.