Boko Haram: A Shaky Cease fire

By Lagun Akinloye
A shaky ceasefire between the Nigerian government and the Islamist
militant group Boko Haram has been announced by figures from both
sides. Despite thepossible reduction in hostilities, the Nigerian
government's emergency rule in three states most effected by the
conflict will continue.
Tanimu Turaki, Chairman of the Presidential Committee on Dialogue and
Restoration of Peace in the North-East, announced on radio that "Boko
Haram will lay down their arms as part of the agreement so as to end
the insurgency," and that the "Governmentagreed with the ceasefire".
Meanwhile, Imam Muhammadu Marwana, a senior member of Boko Haram,
reportedly confirmed the agreement, adding "I appeal to those who lost
their loved ones to our activities to forgive us, and on our side we
have forgiven all those who committed atrocities against us".
The details of any ceasefire remain uncertain, as do reports of
whether a deal has officially been signed yet, andit is worth pointing
out that rumours ofthis type have emerged before evaporating in the
past. However, these latest announcements do appear to be more
concrete than someprevious reports of alleged ceasefires. And with the
situation in the north of Nigeria perhaps worse than ever, an end to
hostilities would prove hugely significant. Since a state of emergency
was declared in three Nigerian states in May, there have been accounts
of huge numbers of civilian casualties, thousands fleeing the region,
and a deepening humanitarian crisis.
Sowing the roots of radicalism
Boko Haram, a northern-based Islamist sect, is believed to be
responsible for thousands of deaths since 2009, when its founder
Mohammed Yusuf was killed whilst in police custody. Across the north
of Nigeria and in its major cities, the group has carried out
shootings and bombings of targets from churches and public gatherings
tothe UN headquarters in Abuja.
The group's latest attack is believed to have been on a boarding
school in Yobe State on 6 July in which 29 students and one teacher
were killed. This was the third time a school has been targeted in the
north-east in recent weeks.
Boko Haram's main demand is that Nigeria, a multi-confessional nation,
submits to Islamic rule. However, the group's rise and its ability to
recruit members are also inseparable from broader socio-economic and
political dynamics in the region, such as poor governance, alarming
levels of illiteracy, and chronic unemployment. Amidst this cauldron
of social ills and immobility, groups such as Boko Haramprovide young
men with an alluring alternative.
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As Bukola Ayorinde, a professor in social sciences at the University
of Ibadan, told Think Africa Press, "The blame for the rise of Boko
Haram lies on the shoulders of the government. There is also a
political factor, but poverty and hopelessness has made the sect and
such groups seem attractive to young men. And now theyare made to die
for something they do not necessarily believe in."
Broken olive branches
Since 2009, the Nigerian government has struggled to deal with Boko
Haram's offensives, and in its latest bid to combat the group it
declared a stateof emergency in Yobe, Borno and Adawama states this
May. Curfews havebeen imposed, movement has been restricted, phone
lines have been suspended, and there has been a hugemilitary presence
on the streets as the army has swept through in its search for members
of Boko Haram. On announcing the state of emergency, President
Goodluck Jonathan insisted"we will hunt them down, we will fish them
out, and we will bring them to justice."
This strategy is seen by many as a final resort after numerous
attempts at reconciliation were rebuffed. On 24 April, for example,
President Jonathan set up a 26-member Amnesty Committee, headed by
Special Duties Minister Tanimu. The committee had a three-month
mandate to try to convince Boko Haram to lay down its arms in exchange
for official state pardons and social reintegration.
But dialogue soon broke down, and Boko Haram stepped up bombings and
assassinations throughout April and May. Boko Haram's repeated
rejection of peace talks, for which it cited insincerity on the part
of the Nigerian government, led to Jonathan's military escalation via
his declaring a state of emergency.
Abubakar Gambo, a political blogger and resident of Maiduguri, a Boko
Haram stronghold, also blamed the government for the breakdown in
talks. "The government did not make enough effort to understand the
root of the problem or listen to the people of troubled areas, but
instead just assumed the root of Boko Haram is exactly like that of
the Niger-Delta insurgency," he explained. What the negotiators failed
to realised, according to Gambo, is that with Boko Haram, "you
couldn't just pay them off."
States of emergencyAccording to the official government line, the
state of emergency has been a roaring success. On 28 June, Minister of
State for Defence, Olusola Obada, defiantly proclaimed that the new
strategy had had a "99% success" rate."The troops of the Joint Task
Force have been able to dislodge the Boko Haram insurgents and restore
normalcy in theaffected states," said Obada.
However, many residents would disagree with such a triumphant
assessment. On 31 May, for example, Al Jazeera reported unverified
accounts that the military has so far killed many more civilians than
it has Boko Haram members. A government spokesperson rejected these
claims. On 6 June, the New York Times interviewed Nigerian refugees
who had fled to neighbouring Niger. These refugees report a climate of
fear and terror back in Nigeria and told stories of young men being
rounded up, disappearances in the night, and indiscriminate killing.
Furthermore, thousands of Borno Stateresidents are believed to be
fleeing into Niger and Cameroon after airstrikes by Nigerian fighter
jets and amidst the prolonged ground offensive. And last month, the
UNHCR, the UN's refugee agency, said it had registered 6,000 Nigerian
refugees in Niger.
In response, Borno State's Deputy Governor Zannah Umar Mustapha has
pleaded with the refugees to return home, saying the government was
making "necessary arrangements to ensure their safety". Meanwhile, it
was announced last Wednesday that 25,000metric tonnes of corn and
millet from Nigeria's grain reserves will be allocated to people in
the areas most affected by the state of emergency.
A shaky ceasefire
Given the deteriorating humanitarian situation in the north of
Nigeria, news of a ceasefire could not have come at a better time.
Boko Haram's shootings and suicide bombings have long ravaged the
region and stepping up of military activity in the past weeks thanks
to the state of emergency has further precipitated the suffering of
ordinary Nigerians.
These Nigerians caught in the crossfireof intensifying hostilities
would no doubt welcome any news of an end to the conflict. However,
while announcements may be promising, wecannot forget previous false
dawns, and the dashed hopes that have accompanied past rumours of a
ceasefire being reached.
A great deal of uncertainty remains around what could be a momentous
step forwards for the country. But whatis certain is that the longer
the current situation continues, the more Nigeria will suffer.