Governor Amaechi And Rivers State: Jonathan’s 2015 Dress Rehearsal By Chidi Oguamanam

By Chidi Oguamanam
Reading some of the reactions and outrage that have continued to trail
recent and ongoing crises in Rivers State, one manages to find some
positive spin. Nigerians, at least most of the commentators, recognize
that the crises in Rivers State is not necessarily about Gov. Amaechi.
It is, I surmise, like most others have done, about our political
culture and its future.
It is about the level of ignominy and impunity of the political class.
It is about the nature and quality of leadership of the present
political dispensation under President Jonathan. It is about abuse of
power and further corruption of the democratic process; it is about
the negative transformation of the shoeless Dr. Goodluck Jonathan and
his Presidency that has now acquired a big ego shoe, which it is using
to trample on anyone on its way. It is a Presidency that has more than
enough reason but has failed to distinguish itself and chart a new
course for Nigeria's political experience and culture. It is about a
Presidency that is its own worst enemy and a political class that has
essentially reaped why it did not sow and, as such, now it constitutes
the greatest danger to Nigeria's ever wobbling democratic pretension.
Let us go to Egypt first and see if we can draw some parallels or
lessons, not matter how far-fetched such a prospect may seem on the
surface. Recently, the people of Egypt demanded and got an
unconstitutional removal of their first ever democratically elected
President, just on the anniversary of his first year in the office.
They readilyplayed into the hands of a waiting and ever willing
military that has historically constituted itself into a part of
Egypt's political DNA. The sins of the deposed President Morsi were
many. He and his party came to poweras beneficiaries of a revolution
for which they were at best peripheral actors. They savoured Egypt's
democratic rebirth, but lacked the courage to practise democracy. They
imposed a constitution on the country, and adopted a winner-takes-all
style of governance. They froze every viable space for democratic
venting for the rest of the population.They proceeded to re-create
Egypt in the image of their ideologically shallow Freedom and Justice
Party (a.k.a the Muslim Brotherhood). They believed that as winners
of 51.7% majority, they did not need the rest ofthe country to govern.
Worst of all, the Morsi-led Muslim Brotherhood constituted an evident
danger to Egypt's vulnerable economy as they lacked the vision to stem
an imminent economic collapse. Majorityof Egyptians, including some
who voted for Morsi, ran out of patience. And the military capitalized
on it. Now, the military seem to have returned to power from the back
doorand can only be kept in check throughthe vigilance of the people
whose callthey have just enthusiastically heeded within a mixture of
institutional and altruistic national interest. The irony is that
those who initiated the recent change in Egypt are equally culpable as
the Muslim Brotherhood they toppled because both the Brotherhood and
the rest of anti-Morsi folks have demonstrated their lack of respect
for rule of law and the democratic process. Ideally, Morsi could have
been allowed to complete his term or be impeached. The latter option
was not possible. In the former scenario, following the completion of
his term, the Egyptian people, even members of his Party, would
expectedly have had sufficient reason to send him packing through the
ballot box in the event he desiredto renew his mandate. But that is
"ideally". In Egypt, the attempt to get two wrongs to result in a
right is presently an unfolding drama.
In Nigeria, save for Obasanjo's ill-fated third term suicide pill, and
the shameful mismanagement of what would have been a smooth
constitutional transition following the death of President Umaru Yar'
Adua, nothing has re-enforced PDP's abuse of the democratic process
than Mr. Jonathan's bid to contest the 2015 presidential election.
This opinion is not for or against that desire of the President to
stand for another term. Itis about how he and his cohorts have gone
about it so far. Because Jonathanwants to contest the 2015 election,
nobody within the PDP in the South–South zone should be allowed to
enjoy national visibility even when that happens to be outside the PDP
framework. Amaechi must not lead the Nigerian Governors Forum (NGF).
Whatever political ambition and choices that Amaechi or anybody
fromthe South-South zone may have or make must be stopped and crushed
atall costs. PDP and all other actors in the national political space
have through the madness and abuse of the so called zoning formula
created aculture that raises political emperors whose territorial
powers aresacrosanct. For this reason, the Speaker of House
Representatives could not come from the South West because some folks,
including those in opposition party, felt that a person of such
national visibility would take the shine off them and constitute
threats to their exclusive political territorial dominion. We have
seen governors who resist and sabotage influential political
appointments at the national level for qualified indigenes of their
states because of fear of who would control the so called party
structure. Even the PDP National Chairmen, historically, have been at
loggerheads with their state governors, ministers from their home
states, etc. The same shenanigans play out even at the most
rudimentary of the current political dispensation – the local
government level, where Chairmen of Councils andCommissioners from
same Council area operate in an atmosphere of perpetual mutual
suspicion.
Another aspect of the political brigandage, banditry and intolerance
that has made Governor Amaechi Nigeria's political metaphor is the
recent election by Nigeria's thirty-six governors (excluding one
abstention)of the Chairman of their Forum. In an election as simple as
that number of electorate, all of whom are putatively leaders in their
own right and beneficiaries of our democratic process; one would have
thought thatthe election would be as simple as the number of
electorates. But that was not to be. Incontrovertible accounts
confirmed that Amaechi obtained nineteen votes and defeated his
hastily recruited opponent who got sixteen. Shortly after, Amaechi's
clear victory was "overturned" by the opposing governors in their bid
to please the Jonathan Presidency. The latter, out ofdesperation
murdered the truth and associated with, and empowered those who lost
the election. Yet someof those clowns have the warped conscience to
talk about the injustice of June 12 at its recent anniversary. Only
few things could evoke some disgust than watching members of the
minority faction of the NGF talk from both sides of their mouth. The
same political leaders will be ones to shout to high heavens if they
were at the receiving end of a rigged election. They will call for the
head of INEC's Jega. Governor Peter Obi's association with this camp,
in his desire to please Jonathan, shows howquickly we forget. Gov. Obi
was a victim of a corrupt electoral process which he fought
courageously through the judicial process and rule of law. He is one
person whose tenacity and moral conviction has enriched Nigeria's
troubled democratic experiment. But on the NGF crisis, Obi was on the
wrong side of history. Even if he was happy to relinquish his position
as Deputy Chair of the NGF, it is not clear why that should matter for
Amaechi's desire to go for a second term. It is easy to use
self-righteous indignationto conflate the truth.
Still on the NGF, even before the election, Jonathan and his PDP's
desperation engineered the creation of a rival group, the so-called
PDP Governors Forum and rented a willingChairman in order to checkmate
the Amaechi-led NGF. The lesson of all these is that we still operate
a political culture of intolerance; one that deploys all crude and
undemocratic strategies, where the sanctity of the ballot box remains
an illusion. If we transpose or magnify the NGF saga onto the larger
polity in Nigeria, especially as it concerns the 2015 general
elections those who would want to unseat an incumbent, at all levels,
including Jonathan, must not fall for President Jonathan's rhetoric on
the sanctity of the electoral process or his 'one-man-one-vote'
mantra. Even his 'do-not-kill-in-my-name' posturing or his
'if-I-lose-I-go-home' pontificating are not worthy of being taken to
the bank. In the present mindset that has been unveiled since the
Amaechi, NGF and Rivers State's crises, the fairness of anelectoral
process will be measured bywhether it results in an outcome desired by
the Imperial Presidency. I noted the desperation with which
thePresident himself commented recently on the stalemated Oguta
Constituency election to Imo State House of Assembly. Personally, I
seem to have been gullible, and indeed was inclined to give Jonathan
the benefit of doubt until the NGF crisis. His recent hosting of
anti-Amaechi delegation from Rivers State, who attended Aso Rock with
basketful of apologies and the recent complicity of his wife's
associates in the Rivers State House of Assembly crisis (as evidenced
in "My-Jesus Christ-on-Earth" confessions) leaves one with every
reason to be apprehensive of the negative transformation of Jonathan's
presidency.Amaechi as a metaphor is also captured in the Governor's
relationship with the Rivers State Commissioner of Police, Mr. Joseph
Mbu. I am sure that many who have wondered over where Mr. Mbu got
hiscourage for insubordination, in conduct and utterances, against a
democratically elected Governor and the Chief Security Officer of
Rivers State need not wonder too far for answer. If Mr. Mbu was
serving in Bayelsa State under Governor Dickson, the truth is that he
would take proper notice of the fact that Dickson is oga at the top's
boy. Mr. Mbu's open confrontation with Mr. Amaechi with so much
disrespect and disdain is symptomatic of the politicalcomplicity;
institutional decadence and deficit of professionalism that
collectively afflict the Nigeria Police. No Commissioner of Police in
his 'right judgment' would take an objective or neutral path in a
state where the Governor is at loggerheadswith the President and
Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces. Yes, afterall, the Police are
part of the Armed Forces, or any they not? What is important is that
the President must be appeased even at the expense of law and order;
peace and security of the State the Commissioner is called to serve.
For as long as the body language of the President, his wife and their
foot soldiers in Rivers State suggest disdain for the Governor; the
police must join the fray on the side of who has the might, who plays
the piper. As an aside, I will not trust that the answer lies in
State Police; because the Governors are certainly going to use the
State Police to re-enact exact same scenario in their dealings with
'recalcitrant' Local Government Chairmen. The answer lies in
cultivating an ethical political culture in which the first and
primarily obligation and loyalty of all actors in the public sphere
will be to the constitution. That sounds idealistic? Yes, only in
Nigeria! In case, you may also further excuse Mr. Mbu, his conduct
reflects Nigeria's military hang over. Recall that Police were
peripheral beneficiaries of Nigeria's military dictatorships. They
were rewarded after each coup d'étatwith appointments as state
military administrators. For Mbu, it must be hard to take an order for
bloody civilian even if he is the Governor.
Another element of the metaphor in the Rivers States crisis is the
recent display of shame by some (dis)honorable members of the
RiversState House of Assembly. Yes, PDP wasright to remind us that
Nigeria does not have a patent over shameful display of parliamentary
indiscretion. It is a global phenomenon, PDP argues. I agree. But that
is as far as I can concede. But "the biggest party" in Africa failed
to take the credit for taking the parliamentary dance of shame to the
Guinness Book of Record level by engineering three maces in one House,
with 'two' speakers and one governor. Not to mention a willingness to
inject a cultic spin to the whole fracas and capping it with a
willingness to sanction the upstaging of twenty seven members of the
house by five. For those five, their only collective credentials are
that they are loyal to Jonathan and their Jesus Christ-on-Earth. Now,
we see a pattern developing, just like in the NGF. For the ruling
Party, majority does not count if is not aligned with the Imperial
Presidency. The simple lesson to be taken from the NGF and the "Rivers
of Blood" House of Assembly is that our votes do not count. A
desperate and Imperial Presidency can do whatever it takes to have its
way.
Anyone who looks at the events in Rivers State and the NGF and the
current political travails of Governor Amaechi as a dress rehearsal
for 2015 has a sound and logical basis for such apprehension. The few
instances where one-man-one-vote mantra appeared to have worked
following the exit of Obasanjo and his doctrine of do-or-die elections
seem to have given some Nigerians a false sense of confidence in the
new electoral process. In those cases which include but are not
necessarily limited to the re-election of Governors Peter Obi, Adams
Oshiomole, and Olusegun Mimiko of Anambra, Edo and Ondo States
respectively, it must be noted that Presidency and its interests
werenot at stake. Moreover, those Governors were able to
diplomatically endear themselves to Aso Rock and were at the time of
theirelections not in the bad books of the Imperial Presidency.The
forthcoming elections would be quite different. There is presently an
attempt by strange bedfellows to put together an opposition coalition
that has since made the PDP jittery. More importantly, Nigerians are
now in a position to assess the Jonathan Presidency on its merit and
demerit. They are able to take the stock of its handling of the Boko
Haram crisis, the energy sector, youth unemployment, poverty
alleviation, infrastructural improvement, national and citizen
security, education, health, civic re-orientation and the fight
against corruption, etc. They are willing to render their verdict.
Unlike the 2011 elections when Jonathan rode on both the goodwill and
sympathy of his countrymen, following what he suffered in the hands of
the Turai-led Yar'Adua's cabal, this time around, thehoney moon is
over. Jonathan's ability to win another mandate is up in the air. In
desperate times, we would see the real test of his one-man-one-vote.
So far, the Amaechi and Rivers State imbroglio have demystified
Jonathan's perceived meekness. We have seen his bared fangs. Unless we
take urgent civic steps, we could possibly see that between the
do-or-die doctrine of his mentor and Jonathan's one-man-one-vote, the
devil we know may be better than the angel we do not know.
And back to Egypt. The Amaechi, NGF and Rivers State crises reveal the
Morsi in PDP. The party has strong disdain for growing a democratic
culture in Nigeria. It has been nurturing politics of hate, bitterness
and enmity against the opposition. It singles out any of its members
that maintain cordial relationship with theopposition as if we should
all be in a permanent state of warfare as part of our democratic
contagion. Aside fromAmaechi, recently the Speaker of the House of
Representatives was called out for commending an opposition party
Governor. Any member of opposition who dares speak out against the
injustice in Rivers State unwittingly provides the incentive forthe
PDP to accuse the Governor of wanting to defect to the opposition.
Despite the ominous political horizonhanging over Nigeria, we must
resolve all differences through the democratic process. The Egyptian
approach may serve Egyptian needs even if temporarily. Despite the
West's tacit endorsement and tongue-in-cheek approach to the events in
Egypt, Nigerians should not allow our politicians to pull the handsof
the clock back and return us to the dark days of military rule. Our
military should take note: Nigeria is not Egypt.
We are older than Egypt in the democratic experience. Yes. What we
need to borrow from Egypt is the tenacity, the vigilance and the
stayingpower to safeguard our votes (through every legitimate means
possible, including social networking infrastructure that may be at
our disposal) and make them count. We have yet to vote out a
presidential incumbent through the ballot box. That is not impossible.
But it would be premature and presumptuous to suggest that such an
outcome will necessarily be the will of Nigerians in 2015. Perhaps if
the opposition does not provide a viable choice, Nigerians can also
send a strong message to theincumbent party and clip its wings, bring
it to its knees, radically reduce the number of its members in the
upper chambers and the states under its control. That may yet be a
possible outcome that could force those Morsi-headed anti-democratic
elements in the (mis)ruling party to engage with the people
respectfully outside of thepresent disdain and banditry that is
running riot across the land. For 2015, all options must be on the
table for Nigerians in regard to how we engage the opposition and the
PDP.
Amaechi and Rivers State have provided us the much required awakening
to not underrate President Jonathan and his PDP's capacity to
undermine our democraticprocess, no matter how less exciting. What we
do with this 'crude awakening' is left for us all.
Prof. Oguamanam wrote from Ottawa, Canada. Follow him on twitter:
@Chidi_Oguamanam