On 2015: Why Buhari Matters

The impoverishment of millions of our country men and women, the
wanton abuse of rights, the unmitigated corruption, alienation,
internal colonisation and exacerbation of the fault lines of the
country, are not issues that the current political order can tackle.
As a first step toward addressing these issues, we recommend a
national dialogue of genuine representatives of the people on the
future of Nigeria. How to force this all-important national dialogue -
whether through a bloody revolution or otherwise - will have to be
determined by millions of toiling Nigerians who bear the brunt ofthe
present anachronistic social order.
Having made this clarification, it is important to note that we have
to "play politics" within the parameters of the current bourgeois
democratic order. And that is exactly what we intend to do in this
piece. This piece was inspired by Joe Igbokwe's ostrich politics which
has found expression in his rejoinders to our articles on what the
opposition - the All Progressives Congress (APC), specifically - needs
to do to make an impression in 2015.
In his latest rejoinder, Joe Igbokwe preferred to hide his head in the
sand and instead of addressing the salient points we raised in our
articles, resorted to name-calling as a way out of the political
cul-de-sac he has found himself. Clearly, for Igbokwe, insults can get
you votes and even win elections. Unfortunately, this approach only
goes to show how patently untenable his position is. He accused us of
starting a project of rigging Jonathan back to power "via such flimsy
and laughable excuse as the opposition not being ready to wrest power
from PDP". These are Igbokwe's words not ours.
Of course, we would be glad to see theback of the People's Democratic
Party (PDP) and Jonathan as far as the governance of Nigeria is
concerned. But just taking a stand as Igbokwe implored us to do isn't
enough. I don't know where Igbokwe got the impression that we imputed
that PDP is invincible. We are not in PDP and wedon't intend to be. So
it is a waste of time offering advice to a party whose implosion looks
imminent. On the contrary, since we have a stake in the APC we feel
obligated to prime the party for the struggle ahead because 2015 is
its to lose.
According to Igbokwe, "Apart from General Buhari any of these great
minds in APC can rule this country better than President Goodluck
Jonathan. They are: Nuhu Ribadu, Nasir El' Rufai, Pat Utomi, Gov
Babatunde Fashola, Gov Oshiomhole, Gov Rochas Okorocha, Asiwaju Bola
Ahmed Tinubu, Audu Ogbeh, Gov Fayemi, Senator ChrisNgige, Dr.
Ogbonnaya Onu, Alhaji Shekarau, to mention a few.
Quite an impressive list! Perhaps, we should add Ogbeni Rauf
Aregbesola, Governor of the State of Osun. It is heartening to know
that our good friend, Joe Igbokwe, is actually thinking ahead.
However, we have to stop the idle chatter and cut to the chase because
there seems to be too much wooly politics going on, and deliberately
too we might add. Let's do a forensic analysis of the list Igbokwe
threw up and our addition to it. Governors Fayemi and Aregbesola, both
capable candidates for the presidency, will be running for re-election
next year so they can't possibly be in contention for 2015.
It is the same for Comrade Adams Oshiomhole, another capable
candidate, who will finish his second term in 2016. We don't see them
abandoning their mandate to chase a position that is at best fluid. As
the leader of the largest party in the merger, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed
Tinubu is the de facto leader of the APC. It looks like that is the
role he wants to play.
Clearly, the South-west holds the ace in the 2015 election. As a
geo-political bloc, it is more cohesive than any other zone. But the
popular sentiment is that the zone has had its "turn". And before Joe
Igbokwe and his fellow travellers raise their voice in
righteousindignation, let's note that this is what bourgeois politics
is all about. So APC has to look toward other zones. Apart from Imo,
all the other states in the South-east zone (just like the South-south
minus Edo State) are PDP or pro-PDP/Jonathan. The likes of Prof. Pat
Utomi, Senator Chris Ngige and Dr. Ogbonnaya Onu will have an uphill
task making an impression in the zone much less in other parts of the
country.
There is little chance that the APC can make any impact in the North
if it picksa presidential candidate outside the three zones in the
North. Nasir el Rufai has repeatedly said he is not interested in any
elective post. So that leaves us with Gen. Buhari (rtd), Nuhu Ribadu,
Audu Ogbeh and Alhaji Shekarau. These are viable candidates and
reputable men who have made their mark nationally. However, Gen.
Buhari stands out simply because he has a cult following in the North
(at least the "core" North) which, if properly harnessed, will stymie
any assault by the PDP (particularly, a much-weakened and divided PDP)
in the zone.The last man standing is Babatunde Raji Fashola, the
popular, young and dynamic governor of Lagos State. So what do we say
about a Buhari/Fasholapairing for 2015? That looks like an ideal
choice for APC moving forward. Fashola will draw the crowd that APC
needs in the South-west while Gen. Buhari will do same in the North.
And with the mounting influence of OwelleRochas Okorocha, the APC can
make an inroad in the South-east. Gov. Fashola will complement Gen.
Buhari in every area and offer the steady hands and moderating
influence of a budding statesman that will give Nigeria the kind of
leadership it truly deserves.