Will Jonathan Win A Second Term?

By Bayo Olupohunda
The handwriting is on the wall. The bold imprints are seen in the
failings of this administration. Now the dashed expectations of the
Jonathan's presidency all seem to be leading to one predictable end -
he may not be re-elected in 2015.
BAYO OLUPOHUNDA
BAYO OLUPOHUNDA
There are strong reasons to believe that his fairy tale journey to the
Presidency may end in his first term.
Apart from the unfolding infighting threatening to tear his party
apart, President Goodluck Jonathan appears to have squandered the
goodwill that ensured his becoming Nigeria's first minority president.
There is a depressing sense in which one cannot just imagine that this
country would endure another term of this administration for another
four years in office ending in 2019. This will be suicidal. Even now,
2015 looks too distant into the future in the eyes of ordinary
Nigerians. In 2011, the president won the election by playing the
underdog card.
The 2011 presidential election was won because ordinary Nigerians
insisted on voting en masse for the country's first minority president
- the man who said he walked barefooted asa child; the man who also
became the symbol of an end to the North's bragging right to power
since Nigeria'sindependence from British rule. In 2015, Jonathan will
not have the luxuryof leveraging on the sentiments that swept him to
power in his first term.
Now, he will have to look for other reasons. Except that this time, he
will not be able to whip up emotions based on his poverty as a child.
His ethnic background will also not matter. If he does, no one will
believe him again.
Rather in 2015, the President will be confronted with the record of
his performance. He will have to answer hard questions about his first
term in office. And if truth be told, if the present situation in the
polity is anything to go by, President Jonathan will be heading back
to his hometown in Otuoke come May 29, 2015.
The President will not stand a chance against a formidable opposition
with the right candidate in a free and fair election. But even at
that, it still does not matter because it appears any typeof candidate
will still beat this President.
His performance so far makes him vulnerable to defeat in a free and
fair election. He just has not lived up to theexpectations of
Nigerians. And I suspect the President and his party arein for a
surprise.
Perhaps, for the first time, Nigerians will witness the power of their
votes. The incumbency factor will not matter in 2015 because the
President is poised to lose the election. But President Jonathan
should not blame anybody for his predicament if he loses. He has so
far been the architect of his own misfortune as a President. He had no
excuse not to perform. Let's face it, the President has fallen short
ofexpectations that Nigerians had of his presidency.
There is no better expression to measure his performance since 2011.
For a President that came into office to have squandered the enormous
goodwill and support from Nigerians isevidence of opportunities gone
awry; of hopes deferred. The only people who will support the
President are thearmy of praise singers from his ethnic group who have
been singing his praises to no end. And this brings me to the attitude
of the so-called Niger Deltan activists and leaders. The leaders of
the region have been so disappointing to say the least.
This attitude of it-is-either-Jonathan-for-a-second
term-or-we-will-all-perish does their ethnic group no good. It is even
an embarrassment to the office of the President. Why do they act as if
Jonathan is the President of only the Niger Delta? Why are they
threatening to bring Nigeria down if Jonathan does not get a second
term?
Did the President emerge in his first term only by the region's votes?
Can threats make a non-performing President stay in office in
perpetuity? The culture of entitlement that pervades the region is the
reason why the Niger Delta might still be backward even if Jonathan
gets a second term.
They should know that it was the support of Nigerians that got the
President a first term. Nigerians thus have the right to demand
performancefrom him. And right now, the situation in our country today
does not look good. In 2015, President Jonathan will have to present
his scorecard.
Nigerians will ask him why corruption which he promised to tackle in
his inaugural address has become a hydra-headed monster in his
administration. He will have to explain why his administration has not
so secured a single conviction in spite of massive corruption in the
land. Nigerians will in2015 ask this President why all the cases of
corruption involving individuals in his government have all died a
natural death.The President will explain why all the anti-corruption
agencies have all become toothless bulldogs. It has become glaring
that President Jonathan has lost the trust and goodwill of Nigerians.
The dominant view of Nigerians is that this government has failed. The
impunity that has become a culture in the country today is because the
presidenthas not been decisive in the fight against corruption.
That is why all the agencies of government have been left to their own
devices. The culture of impunity has been so pervasive. Take the
powersector for example.
The President has not arrested the unending conundrum that has dogged
the unbundling of the sector. This should not continue beyond 2015.
Meanwhile, the power situation continues to get worse. The 2015
elections should be about performance and the President has a lot of
questions to answer about his stewardship unless something drastic
happens between now and the election date.
The President also has to explain why million of Nigerian youths
cannot find jobs. All we hear from this governmentis how the economy
is growing at an unbelievable rate. Pray, how can the economy grow
while millions are unemployed?
What kind of voodoo economy is that? Didn't the Minister of Finance
and Coordinating Minister for the Economy say the last time that the
unemployment figures give her sleepless night? What further evidence
do Nigerians need that this government is not providing an enabling
environment for job creation? The millions of youths who had hoped in
this government will ask hard questions in 2015.
The security situation in the country is a cause for grave concern.
The other day, about 40 pupils were murdered bysuspected terrorists in
Yobe State. As I write, nobody has been apprehended for perpetrating
the dastardly act.
The Jos crisis continues to claim more lives. In many parts of the
country, lives and property are not secure. Yet, the government blames
everybody else except itself. How can a government whose primary duty
is to safeguard lives and property fail woefully in performing the
same duty?Meanwhile, the country also lags behind in all development
indexes.
The argument advanced by the supporters of this government is that our
problems are not created by President Jonathan. But has the
administration demonstrated the political will to tackle the problems
head on? Does government not exist to solve problems no matter how old
they have existed?
However, there has been some good news lately. The President recently
inaugurated the construction of the Lagos-Ibadan Expressway. Let's
just hope the project will not become abandoned like the previous
attempts.The federal roads across the country are also said to be
getting the attention they deserve.
This is not forgetting the ongoing rehabilitation in the nation's
airports. But all this will pale into insignificance when compared to
the dashed expectations of this government. It is for these reasons
that Jonathan may lose in 2015. All things being equal, anyway.