Still on Jonathan, opposition and 2015 by Chido Onumah (conumah@ hotmail.com)

I would be deluding myself if I imagined that my article last week,
"2015: Who will defeat Jonathan?" would not elicit the kind of
"violent" outbursts that have trailed it. After all,this is Nigeria
where you can't take a position without being accused of "looking for
something". It is understandable. Some journalists andcolumnists have
written their way to plum government jobs.
That piece was meant to be a wake-up call for the opposition and an
attempt to redirect the jaded public discourse on the future of
Nigeria. In a way, the diatribes notwithstanding, I am happy we are
gradually shifting gear and are inclining toward a proper debate about
2015.
This is helpful considering that the only debate on that subject so
far has been name-calling and threats by ethnic warlords and religious
bigots. If it is notOhaneze Ndigboshouting from every rooftop, "It is
the turn of Ndigbo" or Dokubo-Asari threatening that the country will
go up in flames with the aid of oil from the Niger Delta or Kingsley
Kuku promising us that militants will return to the creeksif Jonathan
is not reelected in 2015, then it is Prof. Ango Abdullahi or Farouk
Adamu-Aliyu assuring us that the North (which North?) will break away
and form its own republic.
In his rejoinder to my piece, Joe Igbokwe took umbrage at my assertion
that, "If free and fair elections were held today (even though the PDP
would never permit free and fair elections), chances are that
President Jonathan would emerge victorious". According to Igbokwe, "I
do not know what led Chido Onumah to believe that the PDP led by
anybody in Nigeria today can win a presidential election in a free and
fair process".
"Now, the question is this: On what basis is the PDP going to win this
election? Is it based on performance? What is the basis? How good have
we fared in the past 14 years to warrant Chido to make this egregious
forecast? Are we getting better? If youstill give the PDP 50 years,
can it do anything better than what we have seen?" Igbokwe asked.
Need we remind Igbokwe that even with the knowledge and experience of
the wreckage and wanton pillage since 1999, the PDP led by Jonathan
won in the South-West during the presidential election just two years
ago? In the same South-West, the Action Congress of Nigeria,
interestingly, won convincingly in thegovernorship and National
Assembly elections.
I did not infer that Nigerians do not have the capacity to bring about
change by voting against the PDP, butit will take more than saying
President Jonathan is clueless to achieve that. For the avoidance of
doubt and contrary to Igbokwe's assertion, I did not gloss over "the
critical importance of performance in winning elections or the issue
of party unity". The point being made, and which bears repeating here,
which was the gist of my article, is that Nigerian voters are not as
"sophisticated" as Igbokwe assumes, notwithstanding the grinding
poverty, President Jonathan's lack of performance and the unmitigated
disaster that has been the hallmark ofthe PDP since 1999.
I have watched Jonathan closely sinceI first met him in Yenagoa,
Bayelsa State, in 2006, during a continental environmental conference
that looked at the impacts and implications of renewed mining boom on
communities in Africa, and it is difficult to put performance and him
in the same sentence, yet, he won a presidential election
"convincingly" in the South-West, even with the level of education and
exposure of voters in that geopolitical zone. We need to know what
made that victory possible in an opposition stronghold. Obviously,
Nigerians notice the imperative of performance in winning election as
Igbokwe rightly noted, but whether this imperative is overriding every
time is another matter.
I did not tie the future of the All Progressives Congress to one man -
Maj.-Gen. Muhammadu Buhari (retd) as Igbokwe erroneously implied. I
was clear in my assertion. As an aside, the former head of state will
be 73 in 2015. I personally do not support gerontocracy in an era in
which the world is electing young and visionary presidents in their
40s.
Talking about the Presidency in 2015, the APC, undoubtedly, is a party
of immense potential. But it remains just that, a party of great
potential. We would need to translate that potential into reality and
time is of the essence. I stand by my assertion that, "If elections
were held today, Maj.-Gen. Muhammadu Buhari (retd) isperhaps the only
person with the pedigree, name recognition and national appeal who
could give President Jonathan and the PDP a run for their money".
"Is Chido saying that if anything happens to Buhari today, APC will
not fill a presidential candidate in 2015? Don't we have more than 50
presidential candidates who can do better than Buhari if we search for
them?, Igbokwe further queried. The answer, my dear Joe Igbokwe, is
that the issue goes beyond fielding apresidential candidate. You want
to field one with the pedigree, integrity,national appeal and
acceptability thatstands a chance. Now is the time to make that
decision no matter how difficult it is; not tomorrow, not next year.
As a card-carrying member of the ACN, and now by extension a member of
the APC, I would love to have the debate about the 50 potential
presidential candidates in the party.
I appreciate what Igbokwe refers to as "mines and bombs the PDP
mercenaries have been sowing on the APC's highway to reclaim
Nigeria".We must add to this the fact that the party is contesting
against an incumbent President (whom some have described as the most
powerful in the world) who has made corruption the directive principle
of state policy.
I hope this resonates with Igbokwe. Let's assume elections are in
April 2015. There are 36 states and 774 localgovernments in the
country. If a candidate (but not just a candidate) emerged today, that
means he or she has 22 months (or about 675 days) to make an
impression. This is not an attempt to pull down the APC, but in all
seriousness to show the urgency of the task at hand.
I also agree with him that it is not "easy for the ACN, ANPP, CPC and
APGA to come together in today's Nigeria tochallenge the PDP". In my
appraisal ofthe APC a few months ago, I noted, "If the APC succeeds,
and I hope and prayit does, it will be "a marginal improvement over
where we are coming from". I ended the appraisal by quoting Edwin
Madunagu who noted in his piece, "Reflections on Party
Combinations",TheGuardian, March 7 & 14, 2013, that, "Someone
hasreferred to the newly-formed APC as the 'new' SDP. Yes, there are a
couple of elements in common. But there is at least one more
requirement for theAPC: It has to show that not only is thestatus-quo
totally bankrupt (which is the case), but also that the APC is a
historically progressive way forward at this moment, and that it is
the only one".
"Now, if the question is, 'Is the opposition ready to compete in
2015?'please take notice that the answer is yes and this is final",
Igbokwe concluded. Quite reassuring! I am currently teaching a summer
course for young journalists from around the world on media and
information literacy at the Autonomous University of Barcelona, Spain.
There are many students and academics from Egypt - some of them active
participants in the "Egyptian Uprising".
Very often, our debates veer toward the situation in Egypt which bears
an uncanny resemblance to what we have in Nigeria. After one year in
office, Egyptians are tired and angry with Mohammed Morsi and his
MuslimBrotherhood/Freedom and Justice Party and they are eager to end
their reign. Egypt is known as a nation where people, no matter their
religion or culture, leave together in peace. But that is no longer
the case under Morsi who, late last year, granted himself unlimited
powers to "protect the nation and to legislate without judicial
oversight". My students say he is destroying Egypt, undermining its
constitution and using religion to divide the country.
If elections were held in Egypt today, what would happen to Morsi and
the Muslim Brotherhood?, I asked a group of students. They were
unanimous in saying Morsi would "win". I then asked why. The response
was that theopposition had not been able to unitearound a nationally
acceptable candidate that could articulate the feelings of Egyptians.
But beyond that, one perceptive student noted, "Alot of Egyptians are
illiterate; they areeasily swayed by religious arguments- which the
Muslim Brotherhood is manipulating. The Muslim Brotherhood is
well-funded, getting support from some of the very rich countries in
the Middle East. During election they will buy people with bags of
rice, cloth and oil".