Still On Jonathan, Opposition And 2015 By Chido Onumah

Columnist: Chido Onumah
I would be deluding myself if I imagined that my article last week,
"2015: Who will defeat Jonathan?" would not elicit the kind of
"violent" outbursts that have trailed it. After all,this is Nigeria
where you can't take a position without being accused of "looking for
something". It is understandable. Some journalists andcolumnists have
written their way to plum government jobs.
That piece was meant as a wake-up call for the opposition and an
attemptto redirect the jaded public discourse on the future of
Nigeria. In a way, the diatribes notwithstanding, I am happywe are
gradually shifting gear and areinclining toward a proper debate about
2015.
This is helpful considering that the only debate on that subject so
far has been name-calling and threats by ethnic warlords and religious
bigots. If it is not Ohaneze N'Igbo shouting from every rooftop, "It
is the turn of Ndigbo" or Dokubo-Asari threatening that the country
will go up in flames with the aid of oil from the Niger Delta or
Kingsley Kuku promising us that militants will return to the creeksif
Jonathan is not reelected in 2015, then it is Prof. Ango Abdullahi or
Farouk Adamu-Aliyu assuring us that the North (which North?) will
break away and form its own republic.
In his rejoinder to my piece, Joe Igbokwe took umbrage at my assertion
that, "If free and fair elections were held today (even though the PDP
would never permit free and fair elections), chances are that
President Jonathan will emerge victorious". According to Igbokwe, "I
do not know what led Chido Onumah to believe that PDP led by anybody
in Nigeria today can win a presidential election in a free and fair
process".
"Now the question is this: On what basis is PDP going to win this
election? Is it based on performance? What is the basis? How good have
we fared in the past 14 years to warrant Chido to make this egregious
forecast? Are we getting better? If youstill give PDP 50 years can it
do anything better than what we have seen?" Igbokwe asked.
Need we remind Joe Igbokwe that even with the knowledge and experience
of the wreckage and wanton pillage since 1999, the PDP led by Goodluck
Jonathan won in the South-west during the presidential election just
two years ago? In the same South-west, the Action Congressof Nigeria
(ACN) won convincingly in the gubernatorial and National Assembly
elections.
I did not infer that Nigerians do not have the capacity to bring about
change by voting against PDP, but it will take more than saying
President Jonathan is clueless to achieve that. For the avoidance of
doubt and contrary to Joe Igbokwe's assertion, I did not gloss over
"the critical importance of performance in winning elections or the
issue of party unity". The point being made here which was the gist
of my article is that Nigerian voters are not as "sophisticated" as
Igbokwe assumes, notwithstanding the grinding poverty, President
Jonathan's lack of performance and the unmitigated disaster that has
been the hallmark ofthe PDP since 1999.
I have watched Goodluck Jonathan closely since I first met him in
Yenagoa, Bayelsa State, in 2006 duringa continental environmental
conference that looked at the impactsand implications of renewed
mining boom on communities in Africa, and it is difficult to put
performance and Goodluck Jonathan in the same sentence, yet he won a
presidential election "convincingly" in the South-west, even with the
level of education and exposure of voters in that geo-political zone.
We need to know what made that victory possiblein an opposition
stronghold. Obviously, Nigerians notice the imperative of performance
in winningelection as Joe Igbokwe rightly noted,but whether this
imperative is overriding every time is another matter.
I did not tie the future of the All Progressives Congress (APC) to one
man – Gen. Muhammadu Buhari (retd)as Igbokwe erroneously implied. I
was clear in my assertion. As an aside, the former head of state will
be 73 in 2015. I personally do not support gerontocracy in an era in
which the world is electing young and visionary presidents in their
40s.
Talking about the presidency in 2015, the APC, undoubtedly, is a party
of immense potentials. But it remains just that, a party of great
potentials. We would need to translate that potential to reality and
time is of the essence. I stand by my assertion that, "If elections
were held today, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari (retd) is perhaps the only
person with the pedigree, name recognition and national appeal who can
give President Jonathan and the PDP a run for their money".
"Is Chido saying that if anything happens to Buhari today, APC will
not fill a presidential candidate in 2015?" Don't we have more than 50
presidential candidates who can do better than Buhari if we search for
them? Joe Igbokwe queried. The answer, my dear Joe Igbokwe, is thatthe
issue goes beyond fielding a presidential candidate. You want to field
one with the pedigree, integrity,national appeal and acceptability
thatstands a chance. Now is the time to make that decision no matter
how difficult it is; not tomorrow, not next year. As a card-carrying
member of ACN, and now by extension a member of APC, I would love to
have the debate about the 50 potential presidential candidates in the
party.
I appreciate what Joe Igbokwe refers to as "mines and bombs PDP
mercenaries have been sowing on APC's highway to reclaim Nigeria".
Wemust add to this the fact that APC is contesting against an
incumbent president (whom some have described as the most powerful in
theworld) who has made corruption the directive principle of state
policy.
I hope this resonates with Joe Igbokwe. Let's assume elections are in
April 2015. There are 36 states and 774 local governments in the
country. If a candidate (but not just a candidate) emerged today, that
means he or she has 22 months (or about 675 days) to make an
impression. This is not an attempt to pull down the APC, but in all
seriousness to show the urgency of the task at hand.
I agree with Joe Igbokwe that it is not "easy for ACN, ANPP, CPC and
APGA to come together in today's Nigeria to challenge PDP". In my
appraisal of theAPC a few months ago, I noted, "If the APC succeeds,
and I hope and pray it does, it will be "a marginal improvement over
where we are coming from". I ended the appraisal by quoting Edwin
Madunagu who noted in his piece "Reflections on Party Combinations",
The Guardian, March 7 & 14, 2013, "Someone has referred to the
newly-formed APC as the 'new' SDP. Yes, there are a couple of elements
in common. But there is at least one more requirement for theAPC: It
has to show that not only is thestatus-quo totally bankrupt (which is
the case), but also that the APC is a historically progressive way
forward at this moment, and that it is the only one".
"Now, if the question is, 'Is the opposition ready to compete in
2015?' please take notice that the answer is yes and this is final",
Igbowke concluded. Quite reassuring!I am currently teaching a summer
course for young journalists from around the world on media and
information literacy at the Autonomous University of Barcelona, Spain.
There are many students and academics from Egypt – some of them active
participants in the "Egyptian Uprising".
Very often our debates veer toward the situation in Egypt which bears
an uncanny resemblance to what we have in Nigeria. After one year in
office, Egyptians are tired and angry with Mohamed Morsi and his
Muslim Brotherhood/Freedom and Justice Party (FJP) and they are eager
to end their reign.
Egypt is known as a nation where people, no matter their religion or
culture, leave together in peace. But that is no longer the case under
Morsi who, late last year, granted himself unlimited powers to
"protect the nation and to legislate without judicial oversight". My
students say he is destroying Egypt, undermining its constitution and
using religion to divide the country.
"If elections were held in Egypt today what would happen to Morsi and
the Muslim Brotherhood?" I asked a groupof students. They were
unanimous in saying Morsi would "win". I then asked why. The response
was that theopposition had not been able to unitearound a nationally
acceptable candidate that could articulate the feelings of Egyptians.
But beyond that, one perceptive student noted, "a lot of Egyptians are
illiterate; they are easily swayed by religious arguments – which the
Muslim Brotherhood is manipulating. The Muslim Brotherhood is well
funded, getting support from some of the very rich countries in the
Middle East. During election they will buy people with bags of rice,
cloth and oil".
Does this sound familiar?
conumah@hotmail.com